Forex Leads Equities

In recent months, the credit crunch has ignited a global trend towards risk aversion. As a result, a correlation has developed between equities, which serve as a proxy for risk, and certain currencies. The Forex Blog previously covered the link between the S&P 500 and the Japanese Yen, whereby the Japanese Yen moved inversely with the S&P as a decline in risk appetite led carry traders to unwind their positions. Perhaps, this connection can be seen in other currencies. Since the forex markets are open 24 hours a day and are the most liquid financial markets in the world, macroeconomic events are often priced into currencies before they are priced into equities. In addition, carry trading strategies have expanded beyond the Japanese Yen. In fact, the USD is now a decent candidate as interest rates are negative,when adjusted for inflation. Thus, an increase in risk appetite could simultaneously boost the S&P and punish the Dollar!