Saturday, July 7, 2007

USD Struggles, GBP 26-yr High

At 10:00 AM US May Pending Home Sales (exp 0.2%, prev -3.2%)
US May Factory Orders (exp -1.2%, prev 0.3%)
US May Durable Goods Orders (exp -2.8%, prev -2.8%

The dollar continued to lose ground against the majors ahead of anticipated monetary policy tightening from the ECB and BoE later in the week. The greenback fell to its lowest level in 26-years versus the sterling at 2.0194 and relinquished the 1.36-handle against the euro. With the European Central Bank and the Bank of England both largely expected to raise interest rates by 25-basis points and the Fed seen remaining on hold for the remainder of the year, traders have rewarded the currencies with hawkish central banks.

Despite the holiday-shortened week for the US market, the calendar is complete with key economic reports. In the session ahead, data slated for release consist of May pending home sales, factory orders and durable goods orders. The May pending home sales are seen increasing by 0.2%, improving from a 3.2% decline in the prior month. The factory orders’ reading is expected to fall by 1.2% versus a 0.3% increase from April. Meanwhile, May durable goods are seen unchanged from the previous month, holding steady at -2.8%. The key focus however, will be Friday’s labor report, providing a gauge on how resilient the jobs market is to the continued slowdown in the US economy.

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