Saturday, June 2, 2007

USD Buoyed Against Eur, JPY

At 4:30 AM UK Q1 GDP y/y (exp 2.8%, prev 2.8%)
UK Q1 GDP q/q (exp 0.7%, prev 0.7%)
At 10:00 AM US April Existing Home Sales (exp 6.14 mln units, prev 6.12 mln units)

The dollar remains buoyed against the euro and yen following yesterday’s upbeat US housing data, with new home sales posting its steepest gain in 14-years. Sentiment over central bank interest rate decisions continues to be the primary driver in the foreign exchange market, as expectations for a Fed rate cut this year are slowly diminishing, ultimately supporting the greenback.

The OECD released its semi-annual Economic Outlook this week and called for global central banks, with the exception of Japan, to “err on the side of tightness” given lingering inflationary pressure. Further, it urged the Fed to refrain from shifting to an easing stance until early 2008, citing “more persistent than expected” inflation in the US. The OECD anticipates two more rate hikes from the ECB to 4.25% and sees further possible tightening from the BoE throughout the remainder of this year as well. Also, to highlight the growing disparity between the economies of the US and the rest of the world, the OECD cut the growth forecast for the US while simultaneously upwardly revising the growth rates for the Eurozone, UK, Japan and Australia.

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